As I described yesterday, the "tough on crime" measures of the early nineties have had a major effect on criminal justice since then:

1. "Normal" crime has decreased (violent, property, public order)

2. The criminal justice system (enforcement, judicial, and corrections) has exploded in size.

One of every 142 people in the United States was in jail last year.
In Russia, it's one of every 157 people
In China, it's one of every 928 people

(That U.S. figure would be higher if inmates handled by the US Immigration and Naturalization Service, and others from institutions such as military jails were included.)

Minnesota has the lowest rate in the U.S., but Minnesota also has the highest cost per inmate of all states... $37,825.

The U.S. jail and prison population has been growing steadily at a rate of 6.5% annually since 1980. I decided to project that rate into the future:

At that rate of growth, we'll have a prison population of 3 million in 5 more years, 4 million ten years from now, and 5 million in 15 years. By the year 2087, we will have more people imprisoned than the whole 2003 U.S. population. That's within one lifetime... the lifetime of babies being born now.

We better hope that our population continues to grow. Ironic, isn't it, that often the same politicians who want to be tough on crime are generally those who want to restrict immigration? We had better hope that immigration continues to rise rapidly, or the U.S. will be nothing but prisons, inmates, and corrections officers.

Close to 14 million people are arrested each year in the U.S.
Total arrests*                     13,699,300
Drug abuse violations             1,586,900 
Driving under the influence      1,434,900
Simple assaults                     1,315,800
Larceny/theft                       1,160,800
Disorderly conduct                   621,400
Drunkenness                           618,700
Liquor laws                             610,600

More than 40% of the 1,586,900 drug violators are for possession of marijuana, 40% for possession of other drugs... not for manufacture or sale.

Direct corrections costs are about $50 billion/year now, for 2 million prisoners. That would be $25,000 for each prisoner, wouldn't it?

$156 billion each year on criminal justice, and rising, to eliminate about 2.7 crimes for each 1,000 people, which is 772,200 crimes reduced from the previous year. It may be a meaningless number, but that's over $20,000 for each crime reduced.

It's hard to visualize how this enormous system moves and changes... people in prison are also being released, usually on parole (where they still eat up resources). Recitivism (the number returning to prison within 3 years after release) is increasing (especially among those convicted of drug crimes).The number of convicted people receiving probation instead of imprisonment has been rising even faster than the percentage being incarcerated.

No matter how you look at the numbers, they come up disastrous. Are we a nation of law-breakers? Are we bad people? Are we naturally criminal? Although there is no way to prove it, the system is certainly convicting and imprisoning a lot of people who are guilty of nothing. Not only will each have a record, but most will be unable to vote in the future, or own a firearm, and will forever be suspect. A great many will have agreed to a guilty plea in plea bargaining.

In U.S. District court, in 2001, 77,145 defendants were tried. 89%  were convicted. Of those convicted, 95% pleaded guilty or no-contest. 74% of those convicted were incarcerated, for an average term of 57 months, and could be expected to serve about 50 months. Using the $25,000/year number, the corrections costs alone for each prisoner would be over $104,000.

Now what? What have we accomplished? Will we continue on the same path, with dropping crime rates, but with increased prosecutions, increased imprisonment, increased prison-building? If you want to know this rapid growth and overcrowding has done to  prisons conditions, read this report by Human Rights Watch.

In addition to a massive prison population, and huge expense, we've dug ourselves into a hole that could be nearly impossible to reverse or even moderate.

• We now have far more enforcement people, with lots more equipment, and power that tends to corrupt.
  
• We now have a justice system that has become used to dealing with excessive caseloads by means of deal-cutting, more use of probation, and that lets a lot of people fall through the cracks.
  
• We now have a much larger prison system - over 1400 state prisons and 102 federal prisons.

Prison costs alone have been the largest increases in state budgets, at a time when most states are in terrible financial shape.

• Imagine how difficult it will be to cut back on any of those systems.
  
• Imagine the usual outcry at putting government workers out of their jobs.
  
• Imagine the economic change in tinkering with a $156 billion industry.

Tomorrow... what can be done and what is being considered to get us out of this incredible mess?